Warsaw, Poland – The National Bank of Poland (NBP) said on Friday that the Poland economy continues to benefit from European Union investment funds, but warned that weaker foreign demand and geopolitical uncertainty could weigh on growth heading into 2026.
“Forecasts indicate that GDP growth in the second half of 2025 will remain at a level similar to the first half,” the central bank said in its outlook. It cautioned, however, that activity could slow next year, with risks tied to the ongoing war in Ukraine and fiscal policy decisions for 2026.
EU funds have provided a critical boost to investment, supporting infrastructure and industrial projects, while stabilizing near-term output. Still, the external environment remains challenging. The NBP noted that stagnation in Germany, Poland’s largest trading partner, has already dampened exports, with net trade contributing negatively to GDP in the first half of 2025.
The bank expects headline and core inflation to continue easing in 2026, giving households and businesses some relief after years of elevated price pressures. It also stressed that fiscal policy, rather than monetary measures alone, would be the main tool to cushion the economy against shocks.
“Downside risks depend on the extent to which European Union funds continue to be used and the demand outlook,” the NBP said, adding that clarity on 2026 budget measures will be essential for stability.
With EU-driven investment offsetting weak external demand, policymakers see resilience in the Poland economy in the short term. But as growth slows and uncertainties mount, the balance between fiscal discipline and stimulus will determine the trajectory beyond 2025.
